They may not be flying under the radar as much as the other teams on this list, especially after a New Year’s Day thumping of South Carolina in the Outback Bowl, but the Hawkeyes are on the brink of a run similar to the early part of the decade, when they won 31 games in a 3-year span. We’ve all heard about the 4 losses by a combined 12 points last year, but if the Hawkeyes had executed better late in those games, they could have legitimately been 3-4 wins better. A lot of that falls on QB Ricky Stanzi, who progressed well in his first season as the starter and showed a lot of poise late in the season. Workhorse back Shonn Greene is gone, but Jewel Hampton will lead a talented group of running backs that could see 3 or 4 guys get significant touches. The WR corp should be improved, with the addition of converted QB Marvin McNutt, a healthy Trey Stross, and talented freshman Keenan Davis. The line loses two key players but also returns one of the best tackle tandems in the nation and a wealth of experience. Two sparkplugs on defense, Mitch King and Matt Kroul, are gone up front, but 8 starters return and they have the ability to be as good as or better than last season’s top 5 scoring D. All 5 road games will be brutal, but double-digit wins is not out of the question for the Hawkeyes this fall.

3. Nevada
The Wolfpack’s unique Pistol offense was wildly successful last year, when Nevada finished 3rd in the nation in rushing offense and fifth in total offense. QB Colin Kaepernick became just the 5th QB in history to run for over 2,000 yards and rush for over 1,000. RB Vai Taua had over 1,500 yards after being buried on the depth chart at the start of the season. Both return along with 15 other starters. The flaw for the Wolfpack is defense, especially the pass D. But this year they return a pair of ends that each had double digit sacks and a lot of overall experience on defense, so look for them to make some improvements. The OOC schedule is tough, including games against Notre Dame and Missouri, but they have the talent on offense to hang with anybody and could wind up with 9+ wins.

2. Arkansas
The Razorbacks will boast probably the best offense no one will pay attention to. Ryan Mallet has as strong an arm as anyone in the country, and he will have a plethora of weapons at his disposal: RB Michael Smith, TE D.J. Williams, and a loaded WR corp. The problem for this team will again be the defense, which ranked last in the SEC last year. However, nearly all of that defense will be back and will (hopefully) be improved. The real decisive factor this year will be the rough road schedule. The Hogs have to travel to probably the 4 best teams in the conference in Florida, ‘Bama, LSU and Ole Miss. If Arkansas can take care of business at home and beat Texas A&M on the road, 7-8 wins is likely and 9 is not completely out of the question.

1. Illinois

It seems like Illinois under-achieves every year that Zook has been at the helm. Every off-season we here about what a great recruiter Zook is, and he has been able to put some insanely talented players on the field at Illinois. But with the exception of the 2007 Rose Bowl season, the results have not panned out on the field. This year the Illini return two All-American caliber players in QB Juice Williams and WR Arrelious Benn. Illinois should have no trouble scoring points, but the defense will need to improve on last season, when they allowed over 26 points per game. The Illini miss both Iowa and Wisconsin this year, and their two toughest conference tests will be right off the bat at Ohio State and against Penn State. If they can steal one of those games, the Illini will likely be favored in all of their remaining games and could end up in the hunt for the Big 10 crown.

When deciding who to use for our Top 5 Sleeper Teams, our main concern was picking teams we though would over-achieve; teams that will win more games than most predict. As such, these teams aren’t necessarily the teams that will be the most shocking, but rather the teams that have the potential for improvement. I’m sure there are some picks that many will disagree with, so sound off in our comments section!

– Paul Johnson’s option offense took the ACC by storm last year. Despite an entire year’s worth of tape to study for opposing defenses, we think the Yellow Jackets offense will keep right on clicking this fall (just look at the improvement Johnson’s offense made in year 2 at both Navy and Georgia Southern). All of the key pieces return on offense and the back 7 of the defense are all back. GT gets both Virginia Tech and UNC at home this year, and could easily carry a top 10 ranking into the season finale against Georgia. Our Pick: 10-15

OVERRATED – #5 LSU
– No one can deny LSU’s talent and potential, but a top 5 preseason ranking is a little high in our opinion. The Tigers disappointed last year with a 7-5 regular season and only 3 conference wins. The bad news is the SEC slate doesn’t get any easier this year, and with road games at Georgia, ‘Bama, and Ole Miss and a game against the ‘Gators sandwiched between Georgia and Auburn, the Tigers could drop 3 or more and find themselves on the outside of the top 10. LSU certainly has the ability to win the SEC West and make a run at a BCS bowl, but we don’t think it happens this year. Our Pick: 10-15



UNDERRATED – #12 Oregon
– Anyone who read our Pac 10 preview knows we are super high on the Ducks this year. 12th isn’t a bad spot to put them, but we think they are worthy of a top 10 ranking. Yeah yeah, we know it’s Coach Chip Kelly’s first year and they have questions on the offensive line and lose a lot on defense, but the Ducks still have the potential to go BCS-bowling. Jeremiah Masoli presents as big of a match-up problem as any QB in the nation, and LeGarrette Blount is a load at RB. We think the transition to Kelly from Mike Bellotti will be seamless, and the defense has shown this spring that they will be able to hang with the offenses in the rest of the conference. If the Ducks can avoid an opening-week letdown at Boise State they will be primed for a run at the Pac 10 title and a birth in a BCS bowl. Our Pick: Top 8

SNUBBED – Notre Dame
– ND’s schedule is widely considered to be as soft as Andre Smith’s “abs” at the NFL combine. While some have the Irish in the top 10 (we’re looking at you, Phil Steele), EA has them out of the top 25 completely. We think the Irish will fall somewhere in the middle. Jimmy Clausen leads an offense that returns a ton from last year, and the team’s athleticism should be much improved all the way around. The game against USC will show that the Irish still have a long way to go to be considered elite again, but Charlie Weis’ team will ride a relatively easy schedule to about 8 wins and could make a run at a BCS bowl. Our Pick: 20th

One thing to keep in mind is that “our picks” are where we think the team’s will finish the season, so we were able to factor in the schedule and other variables that EA may have left out in their pre-season rankings.

Some honorable mentions include Virginia Tech (underrated) and Penn State (overrated). We are very high on Virginia Tech this year and think they can make a run at the National Championship, but their rough non-conference schedule and the potential of Georgia Tech and UNC kept us from arguing against the Hokies #10 ranking. Penn State loses a lot of talent, but with Darryl Clark and Evan Royster back to lead the offense and a potentially dominating D combined with a cake non-conference schedule and relatively easy conference slate, we think they can hang around the top 10 all season. If the Lions played anybody outside of the conference we would want them lower in the rankings, but as is we think they have the pieces to make another BCS bowl.

Sound off in our comments section to tell us who YOU think is overrated or underrated, or let us know how wrong we are with our picks. Be sure to check back regularly as we continue to update information on NCAA 10 and talk the 2009 college football season!