It is easy to see who the top three teams in the conference are, but beyond that each team has some major holes. The Big 12 will again have big offenses, but it is the teams with stellar defenses that will rise to the top. Though Nebraska seems like a no-brainer in the North and Oklahoma and Texas will battle for the South, the rest of the conference is wide open.
Champion: Oklahoma – The Sooners defeat Nebraska in a hard-fought Big 12 Championship game.
South Division
- 1. Oklahoma (7-1): Don’t get used to the Sooners finishing in the middle of the division; Coach Bob Stoops will have this team back at the top of the Big 12 as early as this season. QB Landry Jones showed last year that he is good enough to lead the team to big things. Super-talented RB DeMarco Murray and WR Ryan Broyles will help Jones carry the load. The only real question on offense is along the offensive line, which received some heat for Sam Bradford going down last year and loses first round pick Trent Williams. The defense loses star DT Gerald McCoy but returns a total of 7 starters and will again be stout. The Sooners avoid Nebraska but will have tough games against Texas and Texas A&M. Oklahoma could end up in the Big 12 Championship this year as long as they can win the close games they failed to win last year; the Sooners lost 4 games by a touchdown or less.
- 2. Texas (6-2): The Longhorns had an undefeated regular season last year and played for the National Championship, but we think they will take a step back this year, albeit a small one. QB Garrett Gilbert showed some toughness and moxie in the loss to Alabama, and was highly touted coming out of high school, but will likely struggle a bit as a first-time starter this fall. The running game hasn’t been very reliable for the Longhorns the last few years, but Colt McCoy was good enough to overcome that. Tre’ Newton, Fozzy Whittaker, Vondrell McGee and TD machine Cody Johnson will all be back in the backfield, so this may be the year the Longhorns can establish a reliable running game. WR Jordan Shipley was unquestionably the top target last year and will be missed, but Malcolm Williams and James Kirkendoll are capable of filling that lost production. The defense will again be the key for Texas, and Sam Acho will lead a unit that will again have the potential to be great under coordinator Will Muschamp. A great defense can take a team far, but a tough schedule and a QB that will no doubt take some lumps means Texas likely won’t repeat as Big 12 Champs.
- 3. Texas Tech (5-3): New Coach Tommy Tuberville has shown an early commitment to stick with Tech’s air-raid offensive style, so this offense should again be deadly. The team has been averaging about 8 wins per year for a long time now, and put a whooping on both Nebraska and Oklahoma last season. All the key skill guys are back, as are BOTH QB’s from last year: Taylor Potts and Steven Sheffield. Both showed last year that they can run the offense, but Sheffield was fantastic at times. If he is given the keys to the offense and plays like he did last year, look out. The D-line will have to patch itself up a bit, but the LB’s will be solid and the secondary could be great. Expect the Red Raiders to again put up 8-9 wins, with the potential to beat anyone at anytime and maybe even push for the South title.
- 4. Texas A&M (3-5): How’s this for a scary thought: the Aggies return stud QB Jerrod Johnson, both running backs, and the top 3 WR’s from a top 5 offense. Johnson alone accounted for over 4,000 yards of offense and 38 TD’s last season. This offense has the potential to be the best in the nation and will tear through Big 12 defenses. The bad news for A&M is that the defense was downright awful last year. DE Von Miller is a sack machine, but the D was last in the conference in yards allowed and points allowed. One would think the defense would get better from practicing against such a phenomenal offense each week, but the sad truth for Aggie fans is the D will hold A&M back yet again. The Aggies schedule sets up so that they could potentially start as good as 7-0, but the last 5 games will all be brutal and A&M will likely suffer through a rough second half of the season. We don’t think the defense will be good enough to get them more than 3 conference wins or 4 at most, but if there is one team that can shake up the entire conference, it’s Texas A&M.
- 5. Baylor (3-5): The Bears struggled to a 4-8 season last year, but that was without their electric QB, Robert Griffin. He will have some weapons around him with RB Jay Finley and WR Kendall Wright. A young offensive line gained some valuable experience last year and should be improved. The thing that will hold Baylor back is the defense. The D was bad last year and loses its two best players in LB Joe Pawelek and safety Jordan Lake. The good news is the Bears were 3-1 last season before Griffin went down, so there is potential for a possible bowl season. With the exception of the season finale against Oklahoma, the home schedule is very favorable and should get the Bears 3 conference wins.
- 6. Oklahoma State (2-6): This is the one team in the South that may take the biggest step back. Nearly the entire offensive line is gone, including star OT Russell Okung. Also graduated is QB Zac Robinson. The return of a healthy Kendall Hunter will make up for the loss RB Keith Tosten, though the addition of a new OC (former Houston OC Dana Holgerson) could make for some slip-ups as well. The defense loses a ton, returning just two starters. QB Brandon Weeden may be able to guide the offense well enough to make the team competitive, but it is hard to place the Cowboys with so many key guys needing replaced. The schedule is somewhat manageable, but facing the clear-cut top 3 teams in the conference is never a good thing.
North Division
- 1. Nebraska (7-1): The Huskers put together a nice 10-win season last year, and if not for a dud vs. Texas Tech and a fluke loss to ISU (8 NU turnovers and the Cyclone s still only mustered 9 points), they were playing like a top 15 team all season. Or at least the defense was. Star DT Ndamukong Suh moved on to the NFL, as did key starters LB Phillip Dillard and S Larry Asante. But there are big expectations in Lincoln for DT Jared Crick, and he and DE Pierre Allen will anchor another very good defense. CB Prince Amukamara is the best cornerback in the conference and K/P Alex Henery’s strong leg will continually put the D in good position. The only thing that could prevent the Huskers from a repeat trip to the Big 12 Championship game and a possible BCS birth is the quarterback position. With 10 total starters back on offense and multiple running backs that can carry the ball, Nebraska won’t need a game-breaker at QB, but they do need a steady leader. Zac Lee was inconsistent last year and has missed time this spring with injury. Sophomore Cody Green will likely see an increased role this year and could even win the job. The schedule is very favorable, with the only non-conference test coming @ Washington. If the Huskers can get a win there, things will set up very nicely for a potential title run. We think they slip up once, most likely against Texas or high-powered Texas A&M. Don’t sleep on Nebraska this year though, we may just be talking about them as National Championship Contenders.
- 2. Missouri (5-3): Gary Pinkel’s team is coming off a decent 8 win campaign, and return maybe the best passing QB in the conference in Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert threw for over 3,500 yards last year and had 24 TD’s to go with just 9 INT’s. In the team’s 8 wins Gabbert threw for 19 TD’s with just 2 INT’s, so it’s clear the team goes as he goes. With another big year this year he could position himself into the conversation for a Heisman in his senior season. Gabbert will have a good, experienced offensive line paving the way and the top rusher from last season to take some pressure off. He does lose his top two WR’s so he’ll need to find some new targets. Regardless, the offense should put up big numbers this season. The defense was downright awful at times last season, especially against the pass, so a big improvement will be needed to challenge Nebraska for the North. The schedule will do the Tigers no favors; they will be at home just once in their final 5 games. We still think Gabbert is good enough to get national recognition as an elite QB and get the Tigers 5 conference wins.
- 3. Kansas State (3-5): If there is one thing that Coach Bill Snyder has brought back to Kansas State it is hope. They overachieved in the eyes of many last year, going 6-6 and 4-4 in the Big 12. The Wildcats have a legitimate star RB in Daniel Thomas. The bad news for Thomas is that K-State was the worst passing team in the conference last year. They lose QB Grant Gregory, but there are several players that could see time or win the QB job, including Carson Coffman, who played part-time last year. The Wildcats also lose their top two WR’s, but when you factor in how terrible the passing game was and the fact that there will be a lot of new faces (both JUCO and transfers) and that might not be such a bad thing. The defense should improve on the 23 points per game they allowed last year, and the secondary will be a strength. The schedule isn’t overpowering; the Wildcats avoid Oklahoma and get Nebby and Texas at home. With so many new and moving pieces, especially on offense, it’s hard to place K-State this year, but we don’t think they will win fewer than 3 conference games.
- 4. Iowa State (3-5): Gene Chizik had the Cyclones as bottom-feeders in the North, but new coach Paul Rhoads brought this team back to life. The ‘Clones tied for the biggest turnaround in the nation last year, and beat Minnesota in their bowl game. The schedule is tough this year though, so the team may take a step back record-wise. QB Austin Arnaud hasn’t proved a reliable threat through the air, but coupled with RB Alexander Robinson he gives the Cyclones a potent rushing attack. The O-line will miss recently dismissed OT Scott Haughton, but should be serviceable. The defense was good last year, but loses a lot and will likely struggle a bit this year. The schedule is also troubling, with 8 games against bowl teams and conference road games at Oklahoma and Texas. They do close the season with four straight games against Big 12 North teams, so the potential is there to make some noise late in the year, and with the coaching job Rhoads and staff did last year, you can’t sleep on Iowa State.
- 5. Colorado (2-6): The offense was bad and the defense was worse last season, but what can you expect from a team that went just 3-9. Coach Dan Hawkins needs to get something going if he wants to keep his job, but the Buffaloes have regressed each of the last two years. The offense will return nearly everyone, and the whole front four is back on defense. With all the returning players Hawkins and Colorado will be running out of excuses if they fail to produce this year. RB Darrell Scott was one of the highest rated running backs in the nation in high school but hasn’t been productive in his two years in Colorado. The non-conference schedule is brutal and the conference road games are tough, so it’s hard to see the Buffs improving much, if at all, in 2010.
- 6. Kansas (2-6): Talk about a tough team to figure out. The Jayhawks started 5-0 last season before imploding and losing coach Mark Mangino. New coach Turner Gill may have what it takes to get the Jayhawks back on track, but this year might be too soon to expect a big turnaround. There is basically no quarterback experience at all on the roster, but the team will return the entire offensive line and a good running back in Toben Opurum. The defense struggled last year and lost three key players. The good news is Kansas missed both Texas and Oklahoma and should be able to be competitive in nearly all conference games.
Let’s hear your predictions in the comments!
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